Mortgage Rates Very Close to 1-Month Lows

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Mortgage rates moved noticeably lower today as bond market improved for the 2nd day in a row–the first time that’s happened since early November (when it comes to the bonds that relate to mortgage rates) his was the first time since early November.  That was reassuring enough that lenders finally adjusted their rate sheets to more than match the market.  They haven’t been able to do that recently due to the volatility and the general trend toward slightly higher rates over the past 2 months.

The average lender continues quoting conventional 30yr fixed rates at 4.0% for top tier scenarios.  While that rate hasn’t changed for more than 2 months, we have seen the upfront costs move higher and lower.  For most lenders, today’s upfront costs for any given rate are nearly as low as they were on November 28th.  Before that, you’d have to go all the way back to Nov 8th to see lower costs.

Loan Originator Perspective

Bond markets posted modest gains today as international tensions simmered over POTUS Trump’s decision to move the US embassy in Israel.  Only time will tell if the drama provides continuing bond demand, but we’ll take it for now.  Tax reform remains a wild card, both in its details and whether it actually passes.  Treasury yields are near one month lows.  Risk tolerant borrowers may want to see where markets go from here, those within 15 days of closing should definitely consider locking in these gains. -Ted Rood, Senior Originator

With the recent gains of the past few days, majority of clients are favoring locking in these gains ahead of non farm payrolls on Friday.   With headline risk due to the tax reform bill which can hit at any moment, it makes floating pretty risky right now.  Additionally, the 10year note does not look like it wants to go much lower than current levels.  Best choice is to go ahead and lock in these gains.  -Victor Burek, Churchill Mortgage

Today’s Most Prevalent Rates

  • 30YR FIXED – 4.0%
  • FHA/VA – 3.75% 
  • 15 YEAR FIXED – 3.375%
  • 5 YEAR ARMS –  2.75 – 3.25% depending on the lender


Ongoing Lock/Float Considerations

  • 2017 had proven to be a relatively good year for mortgage rates despite widespread expectations for a stronger push higher after the presidential election in late 2016. 
  • While rates remain low in absolute terms, they’ve moved higher in a more threatening way heading into the 4th quarter, relative to the stability and improvement seen earlier in 2017
  • The default stance for now is that this trend toward higher rates has the potential to continue.  It will take more than a few great days here and there for that outlook to change.
  • For weeks, this bullet point had warned about recent stability inviting a bigger dose of volatility.  That volatility is now here.  As such, locking is generally the better choice until the volatility is clearly dying down.
  • Rates discussed refer to the most frequently-quoted, conforming, conventional 30yr fixed rate for top tier borrowers among average to well-priced lenders.  The rates generally assume little-to-no origination or discount except as noted when applicable.  Rates appearing on this page are “effective rates” that take day-to-day changes in upfront costs into consideration.



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