Best 2-Day Winning Streak in Quite a While

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For the purposes of this recap, “winning streak” would be defined as a day where Fannie 3.5 MBS or 10yr Treasury yields closed at better levels than the previous closing levels.  The more days in a row where that happens, the longer the winning streak would be.  Without further ado, I present to you the largest winning streak since early November!

How many successive days of improvement did it take?  Well… just the one.  That’s right!  We actually haven’t had a successive day of gains (vs the previous close) since early November.  Even then, one might point out that early November gains only came after a late October sell-off to the weakest levels in more than 6 months.  In that context, we haven’t really had any winning streaks in close to 2 months.

This isn’t to say that yields haven’t moved higher and lower inside their recent range–simply that they haven’t much cared to string the winning days together.  To be fair, the same could be said of the losing days for most of the past 3 weeks.  Bottom line: things have been sideways, volatile, and noncommittal as we wait for fiscal and monetary policy decisions.

There were no specifics to drive the past 2 days of improvement–at least not the sort of specifics we’re used to dealing with.  Economic data hasn’t had much of an impact.  That’s especially true of this morning’s ADP Employment data and even the Productivity and Costs report.  The latter appeared to move bonds at first, but it was actually a block trade of 5yr Treasury futures that got the party started at 8:26am ET, 4 minutes before the data came out.  “Party” is also a relative term as we’re talking about very mild movement relative to any other random 5 minute cross-section of the day.


MBS Pricing Snapshot

Pricing shown below is delayed, please note the timestamp at the bottom. Real time pricing is available via MBS Live.

MBS

FNMA 3.5

102-28 : +0-03

Treasuries

10 YR

2.3403 : -0.0157

Pricing as of 12/6/17 5:25PMEST

Today’s Reprice Alerts and Updates

4:47PM  :  Some Weakness Heading Into The Close

9:06AM  :  Bonds Rally Into Domestic Session, But At Risk Of Bouncing


MBS Live Chat Highlights

Matthew Graham  :  “bad because more likely to pass”

Victor Burek  :  “mg…is that good or bad for us?”

Matthew Graham  :  “RTRS – U.S. REPUBLICAN SENATOR HATCH SAYS “DOESN’T LOOK LIKE” CORPORATE ALTERNATIVE MINIMUM TAX WILL BE IN FINAL TAX BILL”

Roland Wilcox  :  “US Bank exiting wholesale Broker – still accepting Correspondent”

John Tassios  :  “wow, US Bank is exiting wholesale? One of the last remaining true banks left in wholesale. They were good to work with.”

Sung Kim  :  “yeah what you said MG”

Matthew Graham  :  “”going to conference” advances the bill, as far as i understand”

Victor Burek  :  “they can still get it done”

Sung Kim  :  “so if they go to conference then tax vote def not getting passed this year?”

Matthew Graham  :  “that just hit the wires interestingly enough”

Matthew Graham  :  “RTRS – U.S. SENATE WILL HAVE 3 PM VOTE ON WHETHER TO GO TO CONFERENCE WITH HOUSE ON TAX LEGISLATION – SENATE AIDES”

Sung Kim  :  “MG? – any tax stuff related today? so this AMT for corporations is complicating things further?”




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